Raila Odinga’s Political Future in Jeopardy if AUC Bid Fails

As Raila Odinga vies for the Chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC), the stakes are high not just for his career but also for Kenyan politics. Having recently aligned himself with the Kenya Kwanza (KK) government to bolster his candidacy, Odinga has distanced himself from his traditional role as a leader of the opposition. In a significant political move, four prominent members of his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) were appointed as Cabinet Secretaries by President William Ruto during the July reshuffle.

However, should Odinga’s bid for the AUC chairmanship fail, his political future could face a significant setback. His alignment with the government has left him with few options, effectively ruling out a return to opposition leadership. Without the AUC position, Odinga would be left in a politically precarious position, unable to criticize the government without being labeled as opportunistic.

President William Ruto, known for his shrewd political maneuvers, is likely aware of this potential outcome. If Odinga does not secure the AUC role and attempts to rejoin the opposition, Ruto could seize the opportunity to discredit him. He might argue, “si huyu Mzee nilijaribu kumtafutia kazi, lakini hakupata lakini watu wake wako kwa serikali, yeye ni tamaa imempeleka huko,” using this narrative to weaken Odinga’s influence and tarnish his reputation.

The outcome of Odinga’s bid for the AUC chairmanship will not only determine his personal political trajectory but could also reshape the dynamics of Kenyan politics for years to come.